Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
